Analysis of the logistic model for accident severity on urban road environment
ABSTRACT:
In
order to identify the possible contributory factors on urban road environment
to accident severity, the logistic regression model was applied to traffic
accident data collected from police-reports. A total of 2117 accidents occurred
in Shijiazhuang in 2002 were considered for the purpose of this paper. Accident
severity (dependent variable) in this paper is a dichotomous variable with two
categories: extra serious or major accident and ordinary or minor accident.
Because of the binary nature of this dependent variable, the logistic
regression model was found suitable. Of nine independent variables obtained
from police-reports, five were found most significant associated with accident
severity, namely, road cross-section, accident location, road alignment, road
type and lighting condition. A statistical interpretation is given of the
modeldeveloped estimates in terms of odds ratio concept. The findings show that
the logistic regression model as used in this paper provides a better
understanding of risk factors related to urban road environment.
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