How Data-Driven Entrepreneur Analyzes Imperfect Information for Business Opportunity Evaluation





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How Data-Driven Entrepreneur Analyzes Imperfect Information for Business Opportunity Evaluation

1)     Data Driven: Here Data-Driven means analyzing past market data to take decision
2)     Entrepreneur: Any organization who are investing money in stock market
3)     Imperfect Information: As stock market always have either positive and negative states and predicting its current state is bit difficult so it will called as Imperfect Information.
4)     Business Opportunity Evaluation: evaluating current portfolio can give best opportunity to earn more money.

In this paper author is analyzing past entrepreneur investment portfolio (all companies in which entrepreneur already invest money) using POMDP (Partial Observed Markov Decision Model) model. POMDP model will be initialize with states (Low, High, Medium) called Z values and this Z matrix will be filled with all past invested amount values. By applying Emission Matrix (Markov Model) using Numerical values we can predict optimized portfolio which can helps us in better understanding next company in which organization can invest money.

To implement this project i downloaded portfolio of one organization from internet and by applying POMDP model we can get optimized information of a company in which entrepreneur can invest amount. This application will give High Investment, Low and Medium Investment companies.

Dataset i kept inside portfolio folder inside project folder and below are some values from dataset

date,GOOG,AAPL,FB,BABA,AMZN,GE,AMD,WMT,BAC,GM,T,UAA,SHLD,XOM,RRC,BBY,MA,PFE,JPM,SBUX
1989-12-29,,0.117203,,,,0.352438,3.9375,3.48607,1.752478,,2.365775,,,1.766756,,0.166287,,0.110818,1.827968,
1990-01-02,,0.123853,,,,0.364733,4.125,3.660858,1.766686,,2.398184,,,1.766756,,0.173216,,0.113209,1.835617,

In above dataset all decimal values are the invested amount and GOOG is the stock name of google and AAPL is for apple and AMZN is for amazon. Similarly u can get rest companies name by giving its short name


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